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Advisory Board Meetings. Social Media Events. The pulsing pattern, it was believed, was a clear sign that the geological forces driving the eruption were subsiding.
By the mudflow continued with tens of thousands of liters of mud contaminated with heavy metals leaking into rivers. Out of the three hypotheses on the cause of the Lusi mud volcano, the hydro fracturing hypothesis appeared to be the one most debated.
On 23 October a public relations agency in London, acting for one of the oil well's owners, started to widely publicise what it described as "new facts" on the origin of the mud volcano, which were subsequently presented at an American Association of Petroleum Geologists conference in Cape Town , South Africa on 28 October see next section.
In , this well data was finally released and published in the Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology for the scientific community uses by the geologists and drillers from Energi Mega Persada.
After such release, however, future scientific research on Lusi should have access to a set of credible data and not be as constraint as early authors were with their limited and questionable quality of data to back their claims.
After hearing the revised arguments from both sides for the cause of the mud volcano at the American Association of Petroleum Geologists International Convention in Cape Town in October , the vast majority of the conference session audience present consisting of AAPG oil and gas professionals voted in favor of the view that the Lusi Sidoarjo mudflow had been induced by drilling.
On the basis of the arguments presented, 42 out of the 74 scientists came to the conclusion that drilling was entirely responsible, while 13 felt that a combination of drilling and earthquake activity was to blame.
Only 3 thought that the earthquake was solely responsible, and 16 geoscientists believed that the evidence was inconclusive.
It further cautioned readers not to consider the voting result in any way as a scientific validation.
On the possible trigger of Lusi mud volcano, a group of geologists and drilling engineers from the oil company countered the hydro fracturing hypothesis.
It is therefore unlikely that the well was fractured as charged. Their paper also published data and well information for the first time to the scientific communities as opinions and technical papers up to that time lacked accurate well data and were forced to rely on a number of assumptions.
However, subsequent studies have refuted the claims made in this paper, and have highlighted that a number of claims made in this study are directly contradicted by the oil company's own well-site reports and documents.
In February , a group led by experts from Britain's Durham University said the new clues bolstered suspicions the catastrophe was caused by human error.
They had overestimated the pressure the well could tolerate, and had not placed protective casing around a section of open well.
Then, after failing to find any gas, they hauled the drill out while the hole was extremely unstable. By withdrawing the drill, they exposed the wellhole to a "kick" from pressurized water and gas from surrounding rock formations.
The result was a volcano -like inflow that the drillers tried in vain to stop. In the same Marine and Petroleum Geology journal, the group of geologists and drilling engineers refuted the allegation showing that the "kick" maximum pressure were too low to fracture the rock formation.
This implied that the hydro fracturing hypothesis is likely to be incorrect. They further stated that the model developed by Prof.
Davies is much too simplistic by not considering all the available dataset and information in its analysis. The technical paper in this series of debate presents the first balanced overview on the anatomy of the Lusi mud volcanic system with particular emphasis on the critical uncertainties and their influence on the disaster.
More geological field studies and analysis based on factual data need to be done before any conclusion can be deduced on what actually caused Lusi mud volcano.
In February , Tingay  compiled a new and detailed chronology of the drilling of the Banjar Panji-1 well and the first days of the Sidoarjo mudflow.
This chronology is built from daily drilling reports and well-site reports and is the first to highlight and document the numerous inconsistencies between papers and reports.
The new chronology  highlights that a number of key claims made by Lapindo Brantas are contradicted by their own daily drilling and well-site reports that are included as an appendix in .
These include the claims that losses occurred seven minutes after the earthquake when drilling data actually suggests losses preceded the earthquake ; that losses at total depth occurred immediately after major aftershocks whereas total losses occurred over 1.
In July , Lupi et al. As a result, seimic waves were geometrically focused at the Lusi site leading to mud and CO 2 generation and a reactivation of the local Watukosek Fault.
According to their hypothesis the fault is linked to a deep hydrothermal system that feeds the eruption. In June , Tingay et al.
Image shows scale of the mud hole, with efforts to contain it by removing the mud and creating embankments for flood defence.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. August 28, top , November 11, middle and October 20, bottom views of the Sidoarjo mud flow. Retrieved October 18, New study favors quake over drilling".
NBC News. Journal of the Geological Society. Bibcode : JGSoc. August 14, Retrieved June 22, This article incorporates public domain text and images from this NASA webpage.
Davies May AAPG Bulletin. Bransden Marine and Petroleum Geology. Our Activities. Santos Ltd. Archived from the original on November 1, Retrieved March 4, Davies, Richard E.
Swarbrick, Robert J. Evans and Mads Huuse February GSA Today. Retrieved June 27, Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union.
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